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Notice: There is a high degree of uncertainty about the details of COVID-19 infection, transmission, and the effectiveness of social distancing measures. Long-term projections made using this simplified model of outbreak progression should be treated with extreme caution.
The estimated number of currently infected individuals is 16888. This is based on current inputs for Hospitalizations (69), Hospitalization rate (2%), Regional population (3600000), and Hospital market share (15%).
An initial doubling time of 5.0 days and a recovery time of 10 days imply an of 2.49 and daily growth rate of 14.87%.
Mitigation: A 45% reduction in social contact after the onset of the outbreak reduces the doubling time to 19.2 days, implying an effective of and daily growth rate of 3.68%.
Admitted Patients (Census)
Projected census of COVID-19 patients, accounting for arrivals and discharges.
Susceptible, Infected, and Recovered
The number of susceptible, infected, and recovered individuals in the hospital catchment region at any given moment
References & Acknowledgements
© 2020, The Trustees of the University of Pennsylvania
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Last Modified : April 24, 2020
